November 8-10: "Midway", "Doctor Sleep", "Playing with Fire"
“Midway” Wins Box Office Battle
By: Keaton Marcus
Diving into the weekend, it was Lionsgate’s Midway that took the top spot with solid numbers, upsetting largely anticipated Stephen King adaptation Doctor Sleep by a fair amount, which is largely disappointing for the latter, but a nice victory for the first. Otherwise, Paramount’s Playing with Fire took charge over a weak Last Christmas, which managed to top the continuously terrible performance by Terminator: Dark Fate.
Aforementioned, Lionsgate’s WW2 biopic Midway took in relatively respectable numbers as it easily topped the box office, beating expectations. With an estimated 17.5M, the Roland Emmerich, FX-laden film toppled over its conservative, 13M forecasts—and playing in approximately 3,242 theaters, the pic averaged a comfortable $5,398 per-screen average. Comparable films include the likes of The 5th Wave (10.3M), or perhaps Geostorm (13.7M), which it easily beat—although its still worth a note that it didn’t take full advantage of its potential as Dunkirk did (50.5M). For a projected finish, if we take in the three films listed, we get an average multiplier of 3.2x, which would hint at a close of 56M, but considering the poor critical reception, we are gaming more for around 45-50M.
Internationally, it didn’t exactly put on a show. Hauling in an estimated 11.6M from its overseas rollout, this hands Midway a worldwide debut of only 29.1M. Considering its 100M production budget, the picture will need around 250M to actually break even, which is a light that is quickly dimming. So, while the first place finish is good, the film will be very far from a hit. We have predictions of a global finish of about 100-125M, which would prove major losses for the studio.
Review wise, Midway hit extremely mixed-to-negative reviews from critics, while garnering impressive approval from audiences. On RottenTomatoes, the picture achieved a lukewarm, 41% “Rotten” rating, with a consensus reading: Midway revisits a well-known story with modern special effects and a more balanced point of view, but its screenplay isn’t quite ready for battle.” Audiences gave it a largely positive approval score of 92% on RT, while CinemaScore ranks it at an excellent A.
Literally snoring in runner-up is WB’s Stephen King adaptation and sequel to The Shining, Doctor Sleep, which didn’t just largely miss expectations, it also raked an overall disappointing weekend. Selling just 14.1M from stateside ticket sales, the picture managed only a little more than half of its 25M forecast, and not even 50% of its lofty 30M+ predictions. Playing in a very-wide 3,855 locations, the R-rated horror film could only give a $3,660 per-screen average. While it got slaughtered by recent King adaptation Pet Sematary (24.5M), it is especially disappointing because of the two major breakthroughs of the genre, It (123.4M in 2017) and It: Chapter Two (91M this year). Taking in the films above, we are left with a multiplier of 2.4x, which would hand a finish of just 33M.
Overseas, after debuting last week in foreign markets, Doctor Sleep is now playing in 68 material markets, and brought in an additional 13M for a foreign total that now reaches 20M and a global bout of only 34.1M. Leading the way was a 2M debut in Russia, followed by Mexico (1.5M) and Brazil (577K). Next week, the the film will open in Germany, along with a November 29 release for Japan. With a production budget capping 50M, the movie needs around 110-120M+ to break even, which is mildly possible, keeping it from being a total disaster.
Despite its financial shortcomings, the movie actually had the strongest reception of all the newcomers, generating positive reviews from critics, and very high acclaim from audiences. On RottenTomatoes, the 151-minute movie scored a 75% “Fresh” approval rating based on 244 reviews with a consensus reading: “Doctor Sleep forsakes the elemental terror of its predecessor for a more contemplative sequel that balances poignant themes against spine-tingling chills.” Movie-goers gave the movie a 90% weighted average on RT, along with CinemaScore giving the film a solid B+, impressive for the genre.
Climbing to third position was Paramount’s Playing with Fire, which earned an estimated 12.8M from 3,125 theaters, beating its 7-12M expectations. This is far from a notable opening, but for counter-programming, it worked well. Critics generally panned the film while audiences gave it a B+ CinemaScore. Overseas, the children’s movie opened in 10 markets with an estimated 2.5M for a global debut of 15.3M.
The fourth newcomer took fourth position with Universal’s romantic-comedy Last Christmas. The fluffy film earned an estimated 11.6M from 3,448 sites, which is within studio expectations, but is fairly behind our 15M projections. Reviewers were largely polarized, and fans gave it a lower-than-expected B- CinemaScore. Internationally, the pic started its rollout in 10 markets, laughing up a soft 3.1M for a worldwide opening of 14.7M.
Rounding out the top five was last weekend’s champ and disappointment, Terminator: Dark Fate, which continued to struggle, grossing a sophomore session of 10.8M, sliding a sharp 63% and reaching only 48.4M, pacing well behind many previous installments. Out in the foreign world, things don’t look great either. Bringing in 29.9M, the hardcore action movie now has 150.9M and a worldwide total just short of 200M (199.3M). This is still around 270M from breaking even.
Next weekend, we see another three newcomers coming into play. Firstly, Ford v Ferrari will be released in an estimated 3,500 locations (27M projections), along with a reboot of Charlie’s Angels playing in 3,300 sites (15M forecast) and The Good Liar showing in a more moderate 2,500 theaters (7M expectations).
TOP FIVE:
Midway
Doctor Sleep
Playing with Fire
Last Christmas
Terminator: Dark Fate