November 1-3: "Terminator: Dark Fate", "Joker", "Maleficent: Mistress of Evil"
“Terminator: Dark Fate” Flops on Top
By: Keaton Marcus
Diving into the weekend, Paramount’s Terminator: Dark Fate managed to take the crown, but on a smaller scale than expected, which gives worries for the future of the franchise, underperforming both domestically and overseas. However, both WB’s Joker and Maleficent: Mistress of Evil delivered solid weekends respectively. Newcomer Harriet also got its fair share with a surprisingly strong debut, while The Addams Family rounded out the top five.
As mentioned, Paramount and Fox/Disney’s Terminator: Dark Fate topped the weekend box office, but it didn’t soar high enough. Selling an estimated 29M in ticket sales, this reboot/sequel played in approximately 4,086 theaters stateside, and averaged a mediocre $7,097 per-screen. While its enough to be the focus of Fri-Sun, the opening pales compared to the forecasts saying even a 40M+ performance was possible, with optimistic projections of even 50M. Compared to others, Dark Fate barely beat Terminator Genisys which opened to just 27M in 2015, making it the biggest domestic flop in the franchise—however, it lost to the likes of The Mummy (31.6M), Rampage (35.7M), The Legend of Tarzan (38.5M) and the two largest debuts of the series, which were Salvation (42.5M), and Rise of the Machines (44M).
Internationally, while the situation got fairly better than its North American performance, it still ended a bit of a disappointment. Hauling in an estimated 94.6M from every material market, making for a worldwide opening of 123.6M. This is far higher than Gemini Man’s 59M global weekend, but its ways behind the 170M+ hauls that The Mummy, Hobbs & Shaw and Godzilla: King of the Monsters did before they finished with 409.2M, 758.9M and 385.9M respectively. While this is too much of a variety to have a narrowed down prediction, we find that it needs a massive 470M to break even with its 185M production budget, which seems pretty bleak. We forecast a finish anywhere around 280-400M.
Review wise, things started to get a little more on the bright side, with generally positive reviews from critics, and solid reception from audiences. On Sweet and Sour, we handed it a reasonable 70/100 “sweet/sour”, mainly praising the performances and the special effects, despite noting the rehashed plotting. RottenTomatoes has it on a weighted average of 70% “Fresh” with a consensus reading: “Terminator: Dark Fate represents a significant upgrade over its immediate predecessors, even if it lacks the thrilling firepower of the franchise’s best installments.” RT users give an impressive audience score of 84%, while CinemaScore hands it B+.
In runner-up, WB and DC’s Joker, which sold another 13.9M in North America, dropping only 27.7% from last weekend as it prepares to top the 300M mark domestically (299.6M to-date). Its not just becoming a breakthrough stateside, as it continues to have a late-night party overseas, with a foreign gross that now stands at 634.4M and a massive global bout of 934M. The picture ranks second worldwide in the DCEU, and it looks like as if the Clown Prince of Crime may stick around to top the one billion mark, becoming the only R-rated film to do so.
Thirdly, Disney’s Maleficent: Mistress of Evil also had a solid three-day, dropping just 37.1% for a third weekend of 12.1M, contributing to a still-weak 84.3M domestically, although if it holds, it will most likely top the 100M mark. Globally, things are better, but still not great, with an overseas haul that now tops 298.9M and a worldwide gross of 383.2M. The picture still needs around 440M to break even with the 185M production cost, which looks like it could happen, but its still not likely.
In fourth, second newcomer Focus Features’ Harriet delivered a strong debut of 12M from only 2,056 theaters, averaging $5,828 per-screen. While it isn’t exactly a stunning opening, and it probably would have fared better in limited release, it still tramples over its 8M expectations. Audiences gave it a pitch perfect A+ CinemaScore, and critics enjoyed it.
Rounding out the top five, United Artists Releasing’s The Addams Family continued its strong performance with an estimated 8.4M, sliding a mere 29.2% from last weekend and topping 85.2M domestically. Overseas, things took quite a jump, with an international gross of 44M and a worldwide total now crossing 129.2M.
Outside the top five, two more new releases debuted. Firstly, WB’s Motherless Brooklyn struggled to ninth position with an estimated 3.6M from 1,342 theaters. Audiences gave it a 78% approval rating on RT. Even worse was Entertainment Studios’ animated Arctic Dogs, which got itself frost bite with only 3.1M in 10th place from a very-wide 2,844 theaters. Audiences gave it a B- CinemaScore.
Next weekend, we see four new releases hitting theaters. First and foremost, WB will release anticipated sequel to The Shining, dubbed Doctor Sleep (25M forecast). Otherwise, Universal’s romantic comedy Last Christmas will open with 20M estimates, Lionsgate’s WW2 feature Midway will take to the skies with 17M projections, while Paramount’s Playing With Fire will try and reach its conservative 15M predictions.
TOP FIVE:
Terminator: Dark Fate
Joker
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Harriet
The Addams Family (2019)