The Snubs and Surprises of the Summer Box Office
by: keaton marcus
The 2019 Summer box office had its winners and losers, its ups and downs; we break down all the snubs and surprises of the year’s hottest movie season.
THE Major WINNERS
THE LION KING (2019)
Based off of Disney’s 1994-released classic original, the live-action retake of The Lion King opened in July to some pretty mixed reception from the critics, scoring 60/100 “sweet/sour” with us. We praised the photo-realistic visual effects, and the signature humor by director Jon Favreau—however, we disliked the lack of originality and heart. Even more skeptical, on RottenTomatoes, the reboot was handed just 53% “Rotten” on the Tomatometer—and similarly on Metacritic, the picture earned 55/100. However, on a positive side, it opened to explosive box office numbers, debuting to a massive 191.7 million in North America—from 4,725 theaters, making it the widest release of all-time. Currently, after 46 days of theatrical release, the film has earned 523.5 million domestically, along with 1.046 billion in other territories making for a global total of 1.569 billion dollars on a budget capping 260 million. The film holds the biggest debut of the Summer, and is the biggest Disney live-action re-imagining along with standing as the seventh biggest global release. An obvious financial winner.
TOY STORY 4
The most likely conclusion to the beloved animated series, Toy Story 4 was both a critical darling, as well as a smashing box office hit—making it the ultimate gift basket for the Summer holidays. On Sweet and Sour, we gave it an excellent rating of 80/100 “sweet”, praising the beautiful animation, the voice-acting, the emotional themes and especially the humor. Even more surprising, RottenTomatoes gave the fourth installment a nearly-perfect 97% “Certified Fresh” on the Tomatometer. Otherwise, Metacritic labeled it with a “must-see” icon, handing it a wonderful 86/100. In the box office, the picture was originally projected to gross 150-200 million in its opening weekend, but ending up underperforming to a debut of 120.9 million. However, while a bit of a disappointment, the sequel still scored a franchise opening record, had the third largest animated debut of all-time and scored one of the biggest debuts of the year and the Summer. The picture has had extremely long-legs throughout its run, and currently has grossed 430.8 million domestically, with an additional 615 million in other territories for a worldwide bout capping 1.045 billion. It may have underperformed a little, but its remains a hit with the critics, and the box office (technically speaking), making it a winner.
SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME
After the massive success of Spring’s Avengers: Endgame, we were expecting big things from Marvel’s next production and sequel Spider-Man: Far from Home. The superhero picture debuted on the Fourth of July weekend, and opened to some very positive reception from the critics, scoring a solid, if unspectacular 75/100 “sweet” on the Lemonradar—we praised the performances, laughs and teen romance—but noted the constant CGI overkill. RottenTomatoes, however, went for it—handing the Spidey flick 90% “Certified Fresh” on the Tomatometer. Metacritic was more on the “average” side than the “good” side, handing the action film 69/100, which is still generally positive. In the box office, Far from Home kicked off its release with a six-day start and was originally projected to open with a Fri-Sun performance of around 90-100 million, with a Tue-Sun six-day weekend capping 180-190 million or so. The Marvel installment opened right on expectations, debuting with 92.5 million in three days, resulting in a monster six-day performance of 185 million. After 63 days in the theaters, the film has generated 386 million in North America, accompanied by an additional 738.2 million in foreign countries for a worldwide total of 1.124 billion dollars on a budget of 160 million. Its the fifth biggest film of the year, the third largest picture of the Summer (the second globally) and is ranked second in the Spider-Man franchise (the biggest globally). A true winner.
ALADDIN (2019)
Another 2019 Disney reboot was the live-action version of Aladdin which was released in late May, and garnered only mixed reviews from the critics. However, while most reviewers weren’t that happy with the Will Smith-starring reboot, Sweet and Sour handed it a 70/100 “sweet/sour” on the Lemonradar. Although we were a little disappointed on the over-stuffed plot and characterization, we completely praised the performances (particularly Will Smith), the dazzling visual effects and the musical score. RottenTomatoes and Metacritic were a little more negative, handing the children’s picture 57% “Rotten” and 53/100 respectively. The box office was a completely different story. Heading towards its four-day holiday release (Memorial Day Weekend), Aladdin was originally projected to earn 75 million from Fri-Sun, and around 90 million from Fri-Mon. The film went on to debut to a three day of 91.5 million resulting in a four day holiday performance of 116.8 million from 4,476 theaters—outperforming expectations. Being in release for 102 days now, the flick has garnered 354.5 million domestically, and 691 million overseas for a worldwide bout of 1.045 billion. The picture is the fourth biggest Disney live-action re-imagining (the third globally), and the sixth biggest release this year. Winner.
fast & furious presents: hobbs & shaw
Universal expands the Fast & Furious universe even further with action-packed spin-off dubbed Hobbs & Shaw, which breaks off from the nine-chapter series, focusing on the two most beloved franchise characters, Dwayne Johnson’s Hobbs and Jason Statham’s Shaw. The film kicked off the last month of the Summer (August) with generally positive reviews from the critics, and some solid numbers in the box office. With Sweet and Sour, the picture earned an above-average 70/100 “sweet/sour” on the Lemonradar—praising the Johnson and Statham’s chemistry, the choreography of the action sequences and the laughs—despite noting that the picture considerably loses steam towards the last half. RottenTomatoes mainly agreed with us, giving it a weighted average of 67% “Fresh” on the Tomatometer—along with review aggregator Metacritic giving it 60/100. Financially, Hobbs & Shaw was set to debut on August 2nd, 2019—with lower projections of 45-50 million, and higher expectations being 75-90 million—however, right in the middle was the majority, predicting a 60-70 million start. It ended garnering 60 million from 4,253 locations—on most expectations—but still weaker than most of the F&F series. The long run is more impressive, now after only 32 days in release—the film has grossed a substantial 159.2 million domestically, along with a monster 528.7 million internationally, gaming for an undeniably impressive 687.9 million in worldwide ticket sales. It broke even with its 200M budget, its the 10th biggest film of the year (eighth worldwide), and Universal decided to make a sequel. Check, check and check—its a winner.
JOHN WICK: CHAPTER 3 - PARABELLUM
The third and most anticipated installment to the John Wick trilogy, dubbed Parabellum, hit theaters in mid-May to excellent critical reception, and some wonderful earnings in the top charts. On Sweet and Sour, it ranks as one of the best films of the year, garnering 85/100 “sweet” on the Lemonradar—giving a big round of applause to the expertly directed violence (by Chad Stahelski), the consistently entertaining acting by Keanu Reeves and the pure popcorn-flick type value in the story. On RT, they gave it a almost-perfect 90% “Certified Fresh” on the Tomatometer—along with Metacritic handing it 76/100. The series might be a critical darling, the trilogy is still not quite known for being notable pics in the box office—that changed with Chapter 3. Originally, we were expecting a debut of 45-50 million (considering the incline from the first-to-second film), while Box Office Mojo was betting on 48 million. The sequel ended surprising, delivering a three-day capping 56.8 million from 3,850 theaters—toppling the fourth weekend for Avengers: Endgame. After a monster 109 days in theatrical release, the film has so far earned 170.9 million in North American sales, garnering an impressive 3x multiplier. It also made an additional 150.6 million in foreign, material markets—adding to a global bout of 321.5 million on a budget reaching 75M. John Wick: Chapter 4 is being released on May 21, 2021. Winner!!
SPECIAL MENTIONS (WINNERS)
OPENING WEEKEND: 54.3M
DOMESTIC TOTAL: 144.1M
WORLDWIDE TOTAL: 431.6M
BUDGET: 150M
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD:
OPENING WEEKEND: 41M
DOMESTIC TOTAL: 131.1M (STILL IN RELEASE)
WORLDWIDE TOTAL: 284.5M (STILL IN RELEASE)
BUDGET: 90M
OPENING WEEKEND: 25.7M
DOMESTIC TOTAL: 96.3M (STILL IN RELEASE)
WORLDWIDE TOTAL: 192.4M (STILL IN RELEASE)
BUDGET: 40M
There were various other winners special mentions. Check Box Office Mojo for the whole Summer list. Now for…
THE MAJOR LOSERS
GODZILLA: KING OF THE MONSTERS
The anticipated third installment to the Monsterverse franchise was to hit theaters the last weekend of May, which is the kick-off month of the Summer. Godzilla: King of the Monsters opened to some pretty rough reception quality wise, and didn’t soar in the box office either. On Sweet and Sour Movies (it was Keaton’s birthday film), we gave the picture a split 55/100 “sour” on the Lemonradar—praising the visual effects, and the scope—but panning the laughable script and performances. RT went even harder on the creature-feature, ending it with a weighted average of only 41% “Rotten” on the Tomatometer. Metacritic was also right down the middle, giving the king of the monsters only 48/100 based on the reviews. So, critics weren’t happy, but audiences were—so its an automatic hit, right? Wrong. It should have been a massive hit, but while the opening day audience scores were high, they didn’t quite show up. On the weekend of May 31-Jun 2nd we were expecting King of the Monsters to open to 60-70 million, while Box Office Mojo was more conservative, predicting only 53 million. The kaiju battle royale only ended up debuting to a mediocre 47.7 million from 4,108 theaters—topping the charts, but way behind expectations—and with a big-budget. Currently, after its 91 days in release—the flop earned just 110.5 million in North America, along with 275.4 million in foreign territories for a worldwide total of 385.9 million. Its the lowest grossing film in the franchise, it failed to break even with its 170-200M budget and was way behind expectations. It also spells some serious worries for the sequel, Godzilla vs. Kong (March 13, 2020). Loser!!
DARK PHOENIX
The last stand before Disney took over Fox and the X-Men franchise—the popular series had its last film dubbed Dark Phoenix, set to debut early June. The widely anticipated take on the “Dark Phoenix” comic arc was panned by the critics, and was most likely the biggest flop of the year. The picture still has no score on Sweet and Sour, but we will have a review coming soon. Anyways, on RottenTomatoes, the X-Men installment scored only 23% “Rotten” on the Tomatometer, ranking as the worst-reviewed film to the series—on Metacritc, it was more mixed-to-negative, earning a still-disappointing 43/100. The critics praised Turner’s performance, but said the special effects were lackluster, it was anti-climatic, and the action was lacking. Originally, it was supposed to be another solid hit for the franchise, and receive a sequel—with Sweet and Sour projecting a debut of 50-60 million from 3,721 theaters. However, after the negative critical reception, we were betting on a conservative 40 million or so, with Box Office Mojo estimating 39 million, and the studio saying 45 million. Dark Phoenix ended underperforming to even the lowest of expectations, debuting behind The Secret Life of Pets 2 with just 32.8 million. Its finished its theatrical release after tallying 70 days, and has earned a franchise low of 65.8 million in North America, along with a poor 186.5 million in foreign countries for a paltry worldwide total capping 252.4 million on a massive 200M budget. Its the lowest grossing film in the series both domestically and globally, the film lost Fox 100-120 million, and was the cause of the cancellation of many planned sequels. The biggest loser of the year!!
MEN IN BLACK INTERNATIONAL
Nobody really asked for a Men in Black reboot, or even a sequel—especially when the last two films underperformed critically. Sony and director F. Gary Gray have actually decided to do a mix of that, both a retake and an installment to the original franchise, dubbed Men in Black International. The trailers were fun, and surprisingly, it could have been a good Summer popcorn flick. However, after its debut in mid-June, our faces were turned upside down, especially after the picture earned some scathing reviews from the critics, and didn’t even open well in the box office. Sweet and Sour handed the reboot/sequel a mediocre 40/100 “sour”, praising the considerable chemistry between Hemsworth and Thompson—but pondering the incredibly dull storyline, and the crudely written screenplay. Other critics weren’t nearly as soft as we were, with RT giving it a terrible 22% “Rotten”, with Metacritic handing it a lukewarm 38/100. Before the reception, we were expecting a debut of around 45-55 million dollars, with the studio anticipating 40 million from 4,224 theaters. After, after the Tomatometer reveal, and our opinion—Sweet and Sour was expecting a much lower 35 million, with Sony at 30 million. International then opened on the lowest of expectations, with 30 million give or take. Furthermore, after 81 days in release—the sci-fi/buddy cop flick earned 79.7 million in North America, along with a so-so 173.4 million in other territories for a global tally of 253.2 million on a 110M budget. Lowest grossing film in the franchise, a waste of an incredible duo of stars and failing to break even. Not the biggest loser, but certainly not a winner!!
SPECIAL MENTIONS (LOSERS)
LONG SHOT:
OPENING WEEKEND: 9.7M
DOMESTIC TOTAL: 30.3M
WORLDWIDE TOTAL: 52.8M
BUDGET: 40M
UGLYDOLLS:
OPENING WEEKEND: 8.6M
DOMESTIC TOTAL: 20.1M
WORLDWIDE TOTAL: 27.5M
BUDGET: 45M
OPENING WEEKEND: 8.9M
DOMESTIC TOTAL: 21.3M
WORLDWIDE TOTAL: 21.3M
BUDGET: 35M
That’s it folks—while there’s much more minor losers and winners to find in the Summer box office—we have listed the major ones. The season’s 2019 bout was severely disappointing compared to last year’s, exactly six percent off the total. However, there were many hits, which several of earned over one billion worldwide. The lackluster turn out was partly because of the so-called “Sequel Slump” (Read “Sequels and Their Under-Performances at the Summer Box Office”)—which featured various sequels underperforming compared to pre-weekend expectations. Overall, though, it certainly wasn’t a terrible season—but it could have been better.