by: keaton marcus

“Hobbs & Shaw” Kicks off the Last Month of the Summer

Besides various hits such as Spider-Man: Far from Home, Toy Story 4, and Disney’s reboot of The Lion King, this Summer has been underperforming badly, largely because of the sequel slump right at the beginning. Now, as we enter the last month of the blockbuster-laden season, Universal will expand the hit Fast & Furious franchise with a spin-off dubbed Hobbs & Shaw, starring Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham. The film has garnered generally positive reviews from critics, and excellent reception from audiences heading into its opening weekend, and is expected to hold the biggest debut of August. There are slim chances that the action flick might be the next, 200M tagged Summer flop, but generally, we are expecting big things for the much-anticipated blockbuster.

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Going back to the under performances of the season, this Summer is tracking much lower than the same time last year, and has so far grossed 2.966 billion dollars in North America so far, projected to gross around 3.5 billion by the end of August. Last year ended grossing 4.1 billion domestically, while 2017 earned 3.7 billion; not only that, but from 2007 to 2016, the season has always managed picked off more than four billion dollars in the United States and Canada, meaning that 2019 is supposed to have the lowest in a heck of a while. Hopefully, Hobbs & Shaw will aid the final month to race past the poor predictions. Tonight, we will get the Thursday Night Previews for the film, which will be reported on Box Office Face Offs.

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The tracking for the Fast & Furious installment has been positive, but not the greatest, seeing to it the spin-off will be far from the biggest in the franchise, but will do solid numbers. Predictions are saying that a 60-70 million domestic debut is in order, from a reported 4,253 theaters across North America, and with a production budget of 200 million dollars, Universal will be hoping for long-legs domestically, and big numbers globally. Comparable films would be Mission: Impossible - Fallout (61.2M), or maybe a high of 2009’s Fast and Furious which debuted to the tune of 70.9M, however, we are seeing some evidence that the spin-off could jump as high as last year’s Venom (80.2M), but its not extremely likely. The biggest films of the franchise include Fast & Furious 6 (97.3M), 2017’s The Fate of the Furious (98.7M), and the massive hit that was Furious 7 which opened to a monster three-day of 147.1M domestically—considering this, we also have to consider the possibility of an all-out manic debut that could top 100M, but from the looks of it, the two-digit projections seem safe.

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Despite the healthy projections, there are some precautions we have to take in case of a serious underperformance, and the unlikely event that the film becomes the next big-budget belly-flop this Summer. Furthermore, there is evidence saying that Hobbs & Shaw is pacing behind Skyscraper (24.9M), Rampage (35.7M), and last year’s The Meg (45.4M), which opens up the possibility of complete failure. We will get more confirmation tonight on Thursday’s performance on whether the pre-weekend tracking is accurate or not, but fans better cross their fingers. Another serious low would be to accompany fellow franchise spin-off, Tokyo Drift, which opened to the tune of 23.9M back in 2006, however, with better critical reception, and a more bankable cast, Shaw should do much better numbers this weekend.

Overall, we have considered the highs and lows of the extremely varied early projections, but on the bright side, it looks pretty good for the high-octane picture. On the whole, the most likely prediction seems like a 65 million weekend, with a high that could reach 90-100M, and an unlikely low that could pummel towards the likes of 30-50M. Check for updates on Box Office Face Offs.