"It: Chapter 2" is Tracking for a Debut of 130-150M

by: keaton marcus

WB’s “It: Chapter 2” released its terrifying second trailer this Summer, and after a heavy amount spent on marketing, and its general anticipation generated by the original film—we are expecting some serious numbers in the box office. Where will it land? Well, that’s out of the question for now, but the weeks leading up to the release say that tracking is reported to be explosive. We are looking at the biggest R-rated debut of all-time, or at least could be looking at it. We”ll be the judge of whether we believe this unbelievable update, but from the looks of it, we are ready to see a smashing weekend debut.

The original “It” picture opened to positive reviews, and an amazing financial start, topping the box office charts for two weekends straight. The film received 68/100 “sweet/sour” with us, we praised the performances, and the emotional storytelling, but noted the cheaply executed, CGI-worn jump-scares. however, RottenTomatoes handed the picture 85% “Certified Fresh”, giving it certain acclaim. Financially, “It” opened to a massive 123.4M from 4,103 sites, giving it the biggest R-rated debut, and the biggest opening for an R-rated horror film. This was before a successful domestic finish capping 327.4M along with an impressive global total of 700.3M on a production budget tallying to only 35 million. Considering these stats, the anticipated sequel may not quite live up the the high bar its predecessor set, but the tracking makes it look easy.

So, regarding “It: Chapter 2”, things look good, with strong advertising, critical acclaim, a solid fan base, and a novel—we think this sequel might just pull it off. In our Comic-Con article, we reported on the “It: Chapter 2” final trailer and predicted its box office numbers for the weekend—I have to say, we were a little too conservative, stating that the horror sequel was headed towards a 70M debut. A couple insiders are on the safe side, projecting a 95-120 million opening, which Wikipedia reported—however, the majority are saying that the picture has a possibility of making a monster 130-150 million three-day weekend. This not only caps the original’s already huge debut, but breaks a couple records too. Overall, we”re obviously in for a huge Fall opening from the Stephen King adaptation. Sweet and Sour Movies is officially predicting an opening from 110-140 million, with chances of topping the original. It’s too early to tell exact numbers, but from the looks of it, a 100M+ three-day looks pretty definitive.

For the finish, there’s also a variety of predictions to observe. The original film scored a multiplier of 2.65x, which means with our 110-140 million predictions, the sequel would end with a range of 291 million to 371 million. However, that’s not the only comp we could look at—other notable R-rated horror pictures include Jordan Peele’s Us, which finished with a 2.46x multiplier—meaning a finish from 270 million to 344 million. Otherwise, on a much lower standard, we could look at 2018’s reboot of Halloween which carved up a multiplier of only 2.09x, which would mean a bout from 229 million to 292 million. We could also look at The Conjuring franchise, which has an average multiplier of 2.78x, which would scare up a conclusion of 305 million to 389 million. There’s a number of different films we could look at for evidence, but nothing official has come across us yet.