By: Keaton Marcus

Six years after the jumbo hit that was Disney’s Frozen, audiences have finally gotten a sequel that they were hoping for. Frozen 2 is already breaking records, and is set to have a massive holiday debut. While it’s pretty clear that no one will cross Elsa’s path in the box office, what can we really expect as a range, especially since it’s not that far away. It’s gonna be expensive, critics are likely going to love it, and movie-goers are very ready to invade the theaters to see the second snow-laden adventure from the biggest studio in the world. Pre-ticket sales are off the charts, but will that hold till it’s debut? We break down whether this sequel will deliver an epic opening or not.

According to Fandango, Frozen 2 has broken the record for the highest animated pre-sales of all-time. That’s promising all right. Maybe a month ago, original projections were posted for the anticipated children’s film, and despite not being as high as some hoped, it’s impressive. The forecast capped around the 130M mark, which would be the third highest animated opening of all-time, new evidence suggests otherwise. The pre-sales mean that the follow-up is technically pacing ahead of Incredibles 2, which served as the highest animated debut of all-time with 182.6M, which is far ahead of the likes of both Finding Dory which earned 135M, and Toy Story 4 which generated 120.9M. Despite Box Office Pro expecting a 115-145M debut, we are thinking it could go much, much higher. The most conservative expectations, however, are Wikipedia’s, which reach just 100M flat—but that was released before the recent info. Yes, there is small possibility of Frozen 2 underperforming even the triple-digit mark, but the sales and the stronger hopes say it could reach a 180-200M three-day, which would be extraordinary.

You want some more, huh. Well, first-day in advance sales for Atom has it outpacing three Disney live-action reboots, including Aladdin (91.5M), Beauty and the Beast (174.7M) and even The Lion King which grossed an incredible 191.7M in its first weekend. If we get into another point-of-view, we see Frozen 2 trending right behind Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (225-350M projections) as the second biggest pre-ticket seller on Atom of all-time. It’s clearly become a tradition to head to the local multiplex and see a Disney picture, with families seemingly making their plans already. This additional evidence suggests that this Thanksgiving release could be one of the biggest debuts of all-time, but hey, pre-ticket sales aren’t everything, and we have plenty of evidence for that, too. However, don’t get your hopes down yet, it’s still very much a winning battle in a long war for the animated picture.

Why do we have to seem so grim? In the past, several films have broken records in early ticket-sales, but have not liven up to their high expectations. One of the many include Solo: A Star Wars Story which sold more than Black Panther (202.3M debut) in advanced ticket-sales, but ending up opening to a lukewarm, 103M four-day bout, becoming one of the biggest flops of 2018, especially because of its terrible overseas performance. Additionally, we could also look at the disappointment that was Shrek Forever After, which was projected for around 110M before garnering just 70.8M, despite ending a hit (grossing 752.6M worldwide). Furthermore, there’s also Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse which received incredible critical acclaim and getting the third (now fourth) biggest animated pre-sales of all-time before succumbing to a disappointing 35.3M (although, because of its moderate, 90M budget, it was a solid hit). But this is Frozen 2, not exactly something to disappoint without a real fight.

Overall, things are leaning more on the positive side of things than the negative, which is a great sign for Disney’s upcoming adventure. With official lower predictions of 100M, the middle going with the 130M range, and the highs saying a 200M debut is possible, its hard to choose. Though, based on this new information, Sweet and Sour is officially forecasting a 140-170M opening. Check for updates on Box Office Face Offs!!