By: Keaton Marcus

“Joker”, opening Friday, is starting its theatrical run with a bang. Despite some controversy looming around the picture, the Clown Prince of Crime is kicking into first gear in pre-sales, according to Fandango. Fans seem to be ready to pour in to the theaters, despite it not being a typical comic book movie, and more of a gritty character study. The budget is modest, it’s got a huge chance for the Oscar, some praise and no direct competition for a while. Do you think the 55 million production will hold strong throughout the first weekend of October, or will it succumb because of its wholly adult-type genre. We take a deep dive of statistics, and see whether or not the prequel will soar.

Previously, the top two spots for Fandango pre-sales in October were 2018’s “Venom” and “Halloween”. Those two pictures debuted with 80.2M and 76.2M respectively, the two largest openings of the month. “Joker” is outselling both, meaning that technically the drama could be on its way for the record. We will look at it’s performance further when Thursday night previews arrive, but so far, it looks damn good. Otherwise, the film is pacing very closely to the likes of “Logan”, which opened to 88.4M in 2017. According to IMDb page views, it’s also trampling over “Spectre” (70.4M). Box Office Mojo has officially predicted an opening that could top 85 million, which would mean the record. If we are feeling lucky, we could even look at it’s seemingly largest comp, “Justice League”, which topped the box office with 93.8M a couple years back. As for Sweet and Sour, expectations seem to be anywhere from 80-95 million, with chances of seriously underperforming or over performing. Surprisingly, it it trending a little ahead of September’s “It: Chapter Two” (91M), which is an excellent sign.

The real question is how long will it hold audiences attention span? Will it climb out of the weekend with amazing success, or will controversy, and it’s different approach to the genre overcome it. The reviews are solid enough (69% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes), with praise for Joaquin Phoenix and the dark tones, but criticism for its mishandling of gun violence. However, overall, critics are satisfied, and audiences are adoring the picture (93% audience score on RT). If you look at some low points, we could look at “Us”, which opened to a still-impressive 71.1M, or maybe a critical low point would be “A Quiet Place” (50.2M) or “The Nun” (53.8M), but that seems highly unlikely taking in the whole situation.

Taking it on a platter, the most rational situation would be a weekend of 80-95M, with a low point of 50-65M and a high of 100M+. Check for updates on Box Office Face Offs!