September 20-22: "Downton Abbey", "Ad Astra", "Rambo: Last Blood"
By: Keaton Marcus
Diving into the weekend, Focus Features’ TV adaptation of Downton Abbey produced a record for the studio, as well as topping two other strong debuts placing second and third. Speaking of that, space-thriller Ad Astra opened well, if not magnificently in runner-up, barely topping the anticipated sequel Rambo: Last Blood which was a tad behind expectations, but still held a solid three day. Popular horror follow-up It: Chapter Two slid to fourth place, while box office surprise Hustlers had a strong hold rounding out the top five.
With a stellar opening in the top spot, Focus Features’ PG-rated Downton Abbey sold an estimated 31M in ticket sales over the course of the weekend. Not only topping its more conservative 16-25M pre-weekend expectations, it also produced a record for the studio (topping Insidious Chapter 3’s 22.6M). The picture also ranks 19th for the highest openings for TV adaptations of all-time, and on a production budget of only 13M, there is a serious possibility for a sequel. For the finish, there isn’t a lot of direct competition to go around here, but we could also look at the audience reception, which was, excellent—with a 96% approval rating on RottenTomatoes, as well as a A CinemaScore. This works in the film’s favor, and we are expecting a spectacular hold next weekend, however, we still do not have exact numbers—the next few weeks will tell all.
Internationally, the film debuted in 17 countries last week, before adding 15 this weekend for a total of 32 material markets to open in. The picture grossed an additional 10M for a foreign tally of 30.8M resulting in a worldwide bout of 61.8M. The largest opening over Friday to Sunday for new markets was a 1.3M release in Germany, however, the UK remains its biggest market, grossing 3.6M this weekend for a total capping 15.6M. Next week, we see releases in France, Belgium and Denmark.
Review wise, we already reviewed the strong reception from opening day audiences, and even more positively, the critics were nearly as warm. On RottenTomatoes (click the link before to see website), based on 179 collected reviews, they calculated a weighted average of 84% “Certified Fresh”. On Metacritic, the reception was more mixed than positive, as we regard a slightly positive 64/100 based on 38 top critics. On a platter, critics thought it captured some beautiful costume design, though a couple noted the familiarity in the storyline and themes—especially if you”re a fan of the PBS show.
Far trailing in runner up was Fox’s Brad Pitt-starring space-set film Ad Astra which garnered a middling 19.2M from 3,460 sites—averaging $5,552 per-screen. For a production made on a possible 100M+, the studio needs a 250-300M worldwide total to break even, and that looks pretty dim now. The performances looks more or less similar to 2018’s First Man, which barely took off to 16M, but that held a much smaller cost of 59 million, still it didn’t really break even, grossing just 105.6M globally. The film ended with a multiplier of 2.75x, which would mean a mediocre 52M domestic finish.
Overseas, the sci-fi film (see RT’s reviews on the link) opened in 44 material markets, and pulled in an estimated 26M for an official global debut of 45.2M (topping First Man’s 25.1M opening, but smaller than Geostorm’s 62.9M opening). Leading the way was 2.8M debuts in both the UK and Korea, followed by France (2.7M), Spain (2.2M), Japan (2.2M), Mexico (1.4M) and Australia (1.3M). These new releases are trailed by openings in Italy, Russia and Brazil the following weekend.
Third holds Lionsgate’s attempted reboot/sequel Rambo: Last Blood, which still stars 70-year old action star Sylvester Stallone as the title character. The anticipated, 89-minute romp was a bit behind its lofty 21-25M pre-weekend expectations, but it still managed 19M in ticket sales. The widest release of the new arrivals club, playing in approximately 3,618 sites, the film averaged a decent $5,256 per-screen. Compared to the previous installment, which was a 2008 revival dubbed plain Rambo, the newest flick was a little ahead of its predecessor’s 18.2M debut. However, the film made eleven years ago has considerable inflation, and only played in 2,751 theaters. Nevertheless, looking at a reasonable prediction for the domestic close, the latter crossed the line with a 2.3x multiplier, which would translate to a a finish nearing 44M.
Nearing the end of the top five this weekend was WB and New Line’s cruising horror sequel It: Chapter Two, which hauled in a third weekend of 17.2M, dipping a parallel to last-week’s 56.5%, for a North American bout of 179.1M. The R-rated film passed both 2018’s Halloween (159.3M), Us (175M) and Get Out (176M) at the domestic box office, and now ranks third in the list of the largest R-rated horror releases of all-time, following both The Exorcist (232.9M) and its predecessor, It (327.4M). Overseas, the film added an estimated 21M internationally, for a foreign total that totals 205M and a worldwide bout topping 385M.
Rounding out the top five was STX Entertainment’s Hustlers which had a strong hold in its sophomore weekend, dipping 48.8% for a weekend of 17M for a domestic total that now tops 62.5M after 10 days in release. After surpassing I Feel Pretty (48.7M), it has now become the fourth biggest release of all-time for STX. Internationally, the 110-minute drama added another 3M overseas from 18 markets, for a foreign bout of 9.8M and a global total of 72.3M.
Next weekend, we see one new, nationwide arrival heading to take the top spot. This release is Universal’s animated flick dubbed Abominable, which is to play in 4,100+ sites over the weekend. Projections are looking solid, as we see it tracking to a 20M+ debut.
TOP FIVE:
Downton Abbey
Ad Astra
Rambo: Last Blood
It Chapter Two
Hustlers