“Frozen II” Repeats on Thanksgiving Weekend

By: Keaton Marcus

Diving into the weekend, it was once again Frozen II that took utter command of the weekend, this time taking the five-day holiday to the next level, dropping a minimal amount, and still bringing the heat overseas. Otherwise, Knives Out also took a notable chunk out of Thanksgiving dinner, making for excellent counter-programming while Ford v Ferrari, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and new release Queen & Slim were close in third, fourth and fifth.

Reigning over the top is Disney’s Frozen II, which during its sophomore session, it sold an estimated 85.2M from Friday to Sunday, along with grossing a massive 123.7M throughout the extended weekend. The drop of just 34% leads to a 10 day total now topping 287M, much higher than originally expected. Considering the strong hold, we are looking for more impressive dips, which could possibly lead to a finish of around 480-500M, ranking as the highest grossing animated film of all-time besides Incredibles 2 (608M).

Overseas, the pic took in another monster 163M from many material markets, contributing to a foreign gross of 451M and a worldwide bout of 738.6M after 10 days, outpacing the original Frozen by far. China remains its largest market, but the juggernaut also opened with many more, including Russia (13.7M), Italy (8.6M) and Australia (6.6M). Next weekend, the animated feature opens in South Africa, Uruguay and Paraguay, along with a release in Brazil on January 2nd.

Secondly, Lionsgate’s new release of Knives Out took runner-up with an estimated 26M over three days, leading to a five-day holiday weekend of 41.7M from 3,461 theaters. Not only making for great counter-programming, but it also defied its 20M expectations. Considering the opening, its a very similar release to 2017’s Murder on the Orient Express, which opened to 28.6M, also a murder mystery with a slightly comical approach. The release above garnered a solid multiplier of 3.6x, which is tough to bring around considering the holiday five-day, but we are thinking about 125M+.

Internationally, the pic debuted last week, and added an estimated 28.3M for a global debut of 70M. Firstly, Knives Out had a 13.5M launch in China, followed by the UK (3.8M), Russia (2M), Australia (1.9M) and France (1.5M). Next weekend, the film adds 14 more major markets, including South Korea, Denmark, Norway, Italy and Mexico. Considering its scanty 40M budget, it should be able to break even with around 110M, which seems completely possible, especially since the projections are about 270M.

Review wise, Knives Out generated incredible reception from both critics and audiences alike. On Sweet and Sour Movies, we gave it a shining 85/100 “sweet”, saying it “features an A-list cast, and is a fun installment to the whodunnit genre.” RottenTomatoes additionally gave it a nearly-perfect 97% “Certified Fresh” based on 338 reviews with a consensus reading: “Knives Out sharpens old murder-mystery tropes with a keenly assembled suspenseful outing that makes brilliant use of writer-director Rian Johnson’s stellar ensemble.” Audiences gave it a 93% approval rating, and a CinemaScore of A-.

Continuing to fire all cylinders in third is Fox’s Ford v Ferrari which dipped just 16% for a three-day of 13.2M and a five-day holiday bout of 19M. This leads to a North American total capping 81M after 17 days in release. With more spectacular holds like this, we are thinking of a close that can even top 125-130M. Internationally, it brought in an estimated 10.2M for a foreign total of 62.3M and a worldwide haul of over 143M. With its 97.6M budget, the race to the 240M mark will certainly be a close one, but estimates show about 210-220M+.

Fourth place holds moderate release A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood which despite a slightly disappointing debut, dropped only 13% for a sophomore session of 11.8M, and a holiday weekend of 17.3M. The domestic total now stands at over 34M after 10 days in release.

Rounding out the top five was Universal’s Queen & Slim, debuting with 11.7M in just 1,625 theaters in US ticket sales for a five-day of 15.8M. Ahead of the single-digit expectations, the well-reviewed drama is looking for considerable legs throughout the holiday season. Audiences additionally gave it a CinemaScore of A-, which is a fantastic sign.

Next weekend, we see the pushed back animated film adaptation of Playmobil, which looks to debut with around 5-10M from an unknown amount of locations.

TOP FIVE:

Frozen II
Knives Out
Ford v Ferrari
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Queen & Slim