“The Rise of Skywalker” Force-Chokes Box Office

By: Keaton Marcus

Diving into the weekend, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker dominated the top charts, but with a less-than-stellar debut, also delivering respectably overseas. Otherwise, holdovers such as Jumanji: The Next Level and Frozen II easily topped second newcomer Cats, which massively flopped. Knives Out has managed to round out the top five with another small drop.

As mentioned, Disney’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker trumped the weekend with an estimated 175.5M in ticket sales. While this is to be considered a gargantuan debut, it isn’t exactly what we’ve been hoping for. Compared to expectations, we were forecasting somewhere in between 200-220M, with Disney expecting 160M+, so while it did beat the lowest of predictions, it didn’t soar as high as it should have. However, from 4,406 sites, it did average a solid $39,832 per-screen average. Then why are we so negative about it? Well, for one, its the conclusion to the 42-year lasting Skywalker saga, and it pales in comparison to the other two films in the new trilogy. The Force Awakens, in 2015, debuted to 247.9M, and its sequel, The Last Jedi opened to 220M in 2017, which is far higher than The Rise of Skywalker. It’s not quite fatigue, though. For the finish, the two films above create an average multiplier of 3.25x, meaning a close of 570M, however, we also have to consider last year’s Solo: A Star Wars Story, which managed a multiplier of only 2.53x, which could contribute to a 444M finish. Overall, we are expecting around 450-500M, and it depends on audiences.

Overseas, The Rise of Skywalker earned an estimated 198M from 52 overseas markets, giving way for a solid, if unspectacular global debut of 373.5M. This is significantly trailing The Last Jedi (450.8M start, 1.332B finish) and The Force Awakens (529M start, 2.068B finish), but it should still easily top the one billion mark. Leading the way was a 26.8M opening in the UK, followed by Germany (21.8M), France (15.2M), Japan (14.6M), Australia (12.6M), China (12.1M), Spain (7.6M), Mexico (7.4M), Brazil (5.9M), Italy (5.9M), Russia (5.8M) and Sweden (4.6M). In January, the film will have releases in Vietnam, Korea and the Philippines.

It’s unfair. Another similar flick this year, Avengers: Endgame, still took in a franchise record of over 357M during its opening weekend, and just because of the mixed reception, fans showed up in half of that figure for The Rise of Skywalker. While the latter isn’t as good as the former, it still received a positive review from us, and from general audiences. They just didn’t show up. Well, they did, in droves. But not sufficiently. Especially since Star Wars has been going on since 1977, and the MCU kicked off in 2008, its got more nostalgia, and it should have a much larger fan-base. Still, while it’s too bad that one of the longest running franchises ever won’t close out magnificently, it still did its job in the weekend box office.

Review wise, The Rise of Skywalker received mixed reviews from the critics, and mostly warm reception from audiences. With Sweet and Sour, we handed it a generally positive score of 75/100 “sweet”, calling it an “imperfect, but solidly fitting conclusion to the franchise”. On RottenTomatoes, there’s a weighted average of 57% “Rotten” based on 361 reviews with a consensus of: “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker suffers from a frustrating lack of imagination, but concludes this beloved saga with fan-focused devotion”. Audiences gave it an approval rating of 86% on RT based on 37,049 ratings and it received a solid B+ CinemaScore.

In runner-up, Sony’s Jumanji: The Next Level dipped steeply, but still held on to 26.1M over its sophomore session, sliding 55.9% and reaching 101.9M after 10 days. While it’s quickly falling behind its predecessor, it will still go on to finish with around 155-160M. Overseas, the pic added another 32.6M from 52 markets for a foreign total of 210M and a worldwide bout of 311.9M.

Third place holds Disney’s Frozen II which earned an estimated 12.3M in its fifth weekend, dropping only 35.5% for a grand total of 386.5M. Internationally, the film’s overseas gross now stands at 717.2M with a worldwide total of 1.103B as it climbs up the animated ranks, now fourth.

Fourthly, Universal and director Tom Hooper released live-action musical Cats, which principally crashed and burned. Generating only 6.5M from 3,380 locations, it’s not only far behind our expectations, but the 95M budget spells serious worries for losses. It also started overseas, where it did not find any cat nip, bringing in solely 4.4M from the UK, for a worldwide opening of 10.9M. It expands to 37 markets next week. Reviews weren’t great as well, dampening any chance for word-of-mouth. It received largely negative reception on RT that comes with a mediocre C+ CinemaScore.

Rounding out the top five was Lionsgate’s Knives Out, bringing in 6.1M for a North American total that now caps 89.5M. It also added another 6.4M for an overseas gross of 96M and a global total of 185.5M, earning great profit on its 40M budget.

Right outside the top five was also Lionsgate, which expanded their release of Bombshell to 1,480 sites, and brought in a meager 5M. This is behind our 7M expectations, but with its stellar limited showing last weekend, it isn’t fatal.

Next weekend, we see three nationwide releases hit the theater. Firstly, the expansion of A24’s Uncut Gems and Sony’s Little Women will open on Wednesday. Otherwise, Fox will open animated Spies of Disguise on Friday.

TOP FIVE:

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Jumanji: The Next Level
Frozen II
Cats
Knives Out